13 December 2007

Are You the Decider?

An expert in decision making explains how business models can help leaders make informed choices

A GMJ Q&A with Gerald Wagner, Ph.D., a Distinguished Research Fellow at the Peter Kiewit Institute of the University of Nebraska-Omaha

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Gerald Wagner has spent his career trying to understand decision making and decision makers. He has come to the conclusion that most businesspeople, in fact most people, don’t understand the rules of cause and effect as they apply to decision making. But he thinks he knows how to fix that problem.

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Reader Comments

Rosalind benjamin Posted On 12/13/2007 1:10:39 PM

As we know anything model based i.e. now convergent, can impact divergent thinking? can those moments of gut reaction , genious, and inventive thinking be overlooked? For example a new model, a new way of thinking. Has this been explored? I would be interested in beta testing this software with my skilled and unskilled team on business and technical decision making. Any Chance?

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Geoff Fountain Posted On 12/13/2007 1:24:30 PM

This concept of using dynamic modeling for decision making was popularized in Peter Senge's book "The Fifth Discipline: The Art & Practice of the Learning Organization". Senge discusses "manager flight simulators" - learning labs - that allow the operator to "what if" the model and see the dynamic results over time. The learning lav is very visual and is backed up with differential equations. One commecial product is called iThink.

Sixteen years after The Fifth Discipline was published this idea of using a dynamic model in a learning lab environment has a footing in public education. The founder of "systems thinking", Jay Forrester, chose to focus on the natural learners - our kids. See websites below for more info.

http://www.iseesystems.com/index.aspx
http://www.stcollab.com/products.html#go3
http://sysdyn.clexchange.org/people/jay-forrester.html
http://www.systemdynamics.org/

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Basil Rouskas Posted On 12/14/2007 5:23:30 PM

Fascinating technology--I am interested in having clients (senior execs) beta drive it with their teams, if that is of interest to the authors.Basil Rouskas

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